October Dairy Market Recap: 5 Things to Know From HighGround’s Curtis Bosma

Five Market Trends That Mattered This Month

1. CME Dairy Futures Hit Record Volume

   Curtis Bosma noted continued growth in CME dairy futures and options, with record volume and open interest in September and October. He said this increased liquidity benefits all users of risk-management tools.

2. USDA Milk Production Report Shows Strong Growth

   After delays during the government shutdown, USDA released the September 2025 Milk Production Report, showing:
   • Up 4 percent year over year
   • Strong growth in Idaho, Texas, New York, and California
   • California comparisons will look unusual due to last year’s bird flu impact
   Curtis called it “maybe not the most friendly report to the dairy markets.”

3. Cattle Markets Remain Highly Volatile

   Curtis said cattle markets are “still chaotic”, driven mostly by political headlines and limited fundamental data. Feeder cattle have fallen from recent highs but remain at historically strong levels. He emphasized the importance of zooming out and evaluating long-term value rather than reacting to short-term moves.

4. Dairy Markets Split: Whey Strength vs. Cheese & Butter Pressure

   Whey:
   • Higher-protein whey products continue to see strong demand and product development.
   • Prices for some whey derivatives are described as reaching $9–11 per pound, supporting Class III.

   Cheese:
   • New processing capacity aimed at whey production is also increasing cheese supply.
   • Curtis said price pressure is likely into Q1 and possibly Q2.

   Butter:
   • Spot butter dipped to the lowest levels in four to five years, trading below $1.50.
   • These lower prices may stimulate export buying or stock-up behavior.

5. Components & Class Pricing: Watch Ratios and Processor Needs

   Curtis discussed shifting base programs that now focus more on component ratios, not just total pounds.
   He noted processors may discourage excessive butterfat when it outpaces protein, saying:
   “You’re gonna have a lot of extra butter fat that you can't make cheese with.”

Feed Market Snapshot

• Corn moved higher following a slightly reduced yield in the latest WASDE report.
• Soybeans have rallied on trade-deal optimism, though Curtis noted China has not yet purchased U.S. product.
• He cautioned that soybean momentum may be “speculator-driven.”

Margin Management Reminder

Curtis emphasized staying proactive:
• Participation in DRP/LGM for 2026 is lower than in previous years.
• Many dairies are still positioned well due to earlier hedging.
• For those who “feel like they missed it,” he said: “There’s always stuff to do.”

For more from this conversation with Curtis Bosma of HighGround Dairy, stream the full episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or watch the complete interview below.